Raw Materials: Tightening Nickel Ore Supply, Strengthening Cost Support

The global stainless steel raw material market in 2026 faces key changes: Indonesia's nickel ore mining quotas have been reduced by approximately 30%, coupled with shipping disruptions due to the rainy season in the Philippines and geopolitical tensions pushing up shipping costs (from $9/wet ton to $17/wet ton, an increase of nearly 90%). The spot supply of nickel ore remains tight, and nickel pig iron bidding prices have risen to 1100-1120 yuan/nickel, providing strong support for stainless steel prices from the raw material cost side.

Meanwhile, China's scrap steel recycling system is rapidly improving, and the proportion of electric arc furnace short-process steelmaking (with carbon emissions only one-third that of the long process) has increased to 16%. TENTONG is simultaneously optimizing its raw material structure, increasing the proportion of scrap steel used, reducing its carbon footprint while ensuring quality, and complying with EU CBAM carbon tariffs and other green trade requirements.

Supply Side: Peak Season Production Surges, Inventory Reduction Begins Domestic steel mills are actively responding to the peak season demand of "Golden March and Silver April." March's stainless steel crude steel production is expected to reach 3.6945 million tons, an increase of 36.33% month-on-month and 5.19% year-on-year, with concentrated capacity release. However, the pace of market destocking is also accelerating. As of March 12, the total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets nationwide was 1.1425 million tons, a decrease of 0.66% week-on-week, with a particularly significant decrease in 300 series inventory, indicating a gradual improvement in the supply and demand structure.

In terms of industrial layout, many regions in China are accelerating the construction of high-end stainless steel industrial parks: Zhejiang Jiaxing Zhenshi Group's 16 billion yuan green high-end nickel-chromium new material intelligent manufacturing project will be put into operation in April, creating a zero-carbon intelligent factory; Shandong Linyi Shengyang Metal Materials Industrial Park will complete its production preparation by the end of April, with an estimated annual transaction volume exceeding 20 billion yuan; projects such as Taiyuan Iron & Steel Xinhai and Naiman Banner in Inner Mongolia are progressing simultaneously, with industry capacity concentrating towards high-end, clustered, and green development. Tenengtong is keeping pace with industrial upgrading, continuously optimizing its production lines, and increasing its production capacity of high-end plates and precision pipes to meet the needs of shipbuilding, nuclear power, and new energy sectors.

Policy: Accelerated Green Transformation, Reshaping the Industry Landscape

The 2026 Government Work Report clearly states that carbon emissions per unit of GDP will decrease by about 3.8%, with a cumulative decrease of 17% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Environmental and low-carbon constraints on the stainless steel industry are tightening across the board. At the same time, policies are cracking down on "involutionary" competition, eliminating outdated production capacity through capacity control and standard guidance, accelerating the increase in industry concentration.

On the export side, starting in January, all stainless steel tariff codes were included in the export license management system, and the process was standardized and upgraded. Export volumes are expected to face short-term pressure, but the proportion of high value-added products (316L, nuclear power steel, etc.) will increase to 35%. After the implementation of EU carbon tariffs, low-carbon stainless steel received tariff preferences. Taiyuan Iron & Steel's "Green Steel" series reduced its carbon footprint by 40%, and exports to Europe increased by 35%, highlighting the premium effect of green products.

Teton has fully aligned itself with green production standards, promoted energy conservation and emission reduction throughout the entire process, optimized the production capacity of high-end products such as 316L and duplex steel, increased the added value of export products, and actively expanded into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East to circumvent trade barriers imposed by Europe and the United States.

Demand Side: Steady Growth in Traditional Sectors, Explosive Growth in High-End Markets

In 2026, stainless steel demand exhibited a structural differentiation, with high-end sectors leading the way. Traditional sectors such as building decoration and kitchen and bathroom appliances contributed over 45% of consumption, showing steady growth. High-end sectors, including new energy equipment, rail transit, and automobile manufacturing, saw explosive demand growth. The new energy industry saw a 12.3% year-on-year increase in usage, with stainless steel demand for new energy vehicles growing by over 25%. Demand continued to expand in special scenarios such as aerospace, nuclear power, and marine engineering.

The full implementation of the "Two New" policies (equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs), the expansion of appliance subsidies to 12 categories, and the installation of elevators in old residential areas and the replacement of old buses with new energy vehicles directly boosted stainless steel consumption. TENTONG has specifically developed stainless steel products suitable for high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors, optimizing the performance of products such as 2B surface, BA surface, and precision seamless tubes to meet the demands for high precision, high corrosion resistance, and high strength.